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Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein told the Australian Institute of Company Directors at a breakfast briefing on Friday, July 26 2013, how investors should prepare for the most extreme risk scenario. His comments about risk management capture the essence of the 'anticipation of surprise' model mentioned above and explained in Dr. Yogesh Malhotra's research papers and research monographs published over the last decade or so. |
"I'd just caution you that models are backward-looking. The future isn’t the past."-- Jamie Dimon, Chairman & CEO, JP Morgan Chase & Co., US Senate Banking Committee hearing, June 13, 2012. |
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| "The new business model of the Information Age, however, is marked by fundamental, not incremental, change. Businesses can't plan long-term; instead, they must shift to a more flexible 'anticipation-of-surprise' model." -- Yogesh Malhotra in CIO Magazine interview, Sep. 15, 1999. |
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"The future is moving so quickly that you can’t anticipate it… We have put a tremendous emphasis on quick response instead of planning. We will continue to be surprised, but we won't be surprised that we are surprised. We will anticipate the surprise." - The 'Anticipation of Surprise' Framework |
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Leading Anticipatory Risk Analytics... since 1993 The concept of 'anticipation of surprise' articulated in a strategy journal* by scholar-practitioner Steve Kerr, the Chief Learning Officer of GE, and the future Goldman Sachs MD responsible for Goldman Sachs Leadership Development caught Yogesh Malhotra's fascination in 1995. Malhotra's research developed that concept into a comprehensive and actionable framework of model risk management of non-deterministic risks such as those associated with black swans through 'anticipation of surprise' by 'effective challenge of models'....
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...Subsequently, the Model Risk Guidance SR11-7/OCC 2011-12 was issued by US Federal Reserve and OCC in aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008... in 2011-2012. Just around the same time, as illustrated here, Wall Street CEOs, CFOs, and CROs started noting that "we must anticipate risk"... ...Coincidentally, this applied research program supported by a digital social enterprise has been already developing frameworks and models for the anticipated future of finance and future of risk starting with the first WWW-browser in 1993... adopted by worldwide firms, governments, and institutions... and written about and recommended by greatest tech visionaries such as Microsoft founder Bill Gates... ...Whether you are like us a Digital Transformation pioneer of Business Technology Management, Knowledge Management, Enterprise Risk Management, Model Risk Management, Cyber Risk Management, Cyber Finance, Cyber Insurance, FinTech and Model Risk Arbitrage or just getting started, you are all "welcome to the new world of business!!" being designed, practiced, and disseminated from that digital social enterprise for over two decades. ...Having affirmed the trajectory of his own post-doctoral quantitative risk modeling and risk management research in 2012 with the Columbia University Professor Emanuel Derman, world's most known expert on Model Risks in his view, who was prior MD and head of Quantitative Strategies group at Goldman Sachs, Dr. Yogesh Malhotra is optimistic about a more enlightened future of quantitative risk modeling... |
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MIT-Princeton-Silicon Valley-Wall Street-Global Digital Pioneer
Dr. Yogesh Malhotra: "We create the Digital Future™"
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Global Risk Management Network, LLC, New York, USA
AACSB & ASIS&T: Real Impact of Research Among AI & Quant Nobel Laureates:
Silicon Valley-Wall Street-Pentagon-Global Digital Pioneer R&D Leading Worldwide Practices
SSRN: 88 Top-10 Research Rankings: Top-1% Authors:
Algorithms, Models, AI, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Network Security,
AI-ML-DL, Quant, Cyber, Crypto, Quantum, Risk, Cloud Computing:
Computer Science, Telecom, Banking & Finance, Healthcare, Defense & Space
Recent Hi-Tech R&D Ventures, Industry Presentations and Expert Papers
Pentagon Joint Chiefs: C4I-Cyber™: Beyond AI-Quantum Supremacy: Command-Control Supremacy™.
US Air Force: AIMLExchange™: Invited Interviews: Top USAF Chief Scientist Pentagon Role.
GIBC Digital Welcomes Leading Machine Learning & AI Expert to Lead $Billion AI-ML Data Center.
Block Chain-Cloud Computing Pioneer: AI-Crypto Expert On Asia-Australia CEO Global Road Shows.
MIT Computer Science & AI Lab AI-ML Executive Guide: MIT-Princeton AI-Quantum Faculty-SME.
Princeton University Quant Trading-FinTech Crypto Presentations: Sponsors: Goldman Sachs, Citadel.
2021 R&D Leading Worldwide Digital Practices: AI-ML-DL-Cyber-Crypto-Quantum-Risk-Computing
2021 Joint Chiefs Of Staff: Beyond ABMS JADC2 to Quantum Uncertainty and Time-Space Complexity
2020 Joint Chiefs Of Staff: AI-Quantum Autonomy in Space: Quantum PhD-Engineers Expert Keynote
2021 Silicon Valley-Wall Street-Pentagon Digital Pioneer: Digital Startups to Trillion Dollar Enterprises
2020 Making Quantum Computing Real for JADC2 With Qiskit: Quantum Communication & Networking
2020 Beyond Data Protection to Command and Control (C2) Sustainability: U.S. Data Protection Act
2019 Innovation Community (UK): Dr. Yogesh Malhotra: Future of AI-ML - Data Science, BlockChain
2019 Journal of Financial Transformation: Capital Markets-Risks: AI Augmentation-Risk Management.
2019 New York State Cyber Security Conference: AI-ML-GANs-DeepFakes: Cyber Risk of Deep Fakes.
2016 New York State Cyber Security Conference: Beyond Predictive to Anticipatory Risk Analytics.
2018 CFA Society Keynote: JP Morgan-Goldman Sachs Cases: Model Risk Management AutoML.
2018 AFCEA C4I Cyber Conference: AI-ML-Cybersecurity Risk & Uncertainty Management Controls.
2018 MIT Sloan-Computer Sc. & AI Lab AI-ML Executive Guide including RPA & Cognitive Automation
2018 Princeton FinTech & Quant Conference: Invited Research Presentation: AI-ML-DL MRM.
2016 Princeton Quant Trading Presentation: Beyond Model Risk Management to Model Risk Arbitrage.
2015 Princeton Quant Presentation: Future of Finance Beyond 'Flash Boys': Managing Uncertainty.
2018 Journal of Operational Risk: Toward 'Cyber-Finance’ Cyber Risk Management Frameworks.
2017 National Association of Insurance Commissioners, Cyber Risk Insurance beyond VaR Models.
2017 IUP Journal of Computer Sciences, April, Quantitative Modeling of Trust Management Protocols.
Stress Testing for Cyber Risks: Cyber Risk Insurance Models beyond VaR: Risk, Uncertainty, & Profit.
Integrated Enterprise Risk Management, Model Risk Management & Cyber-Finance Risk Management.
Bridging Networks, Systems, Controls Frameworks: Cybersecurity Curricula & Standards Development.
Advancing Cognitive Analytics Using Quantum Computing for Next Generation Encryption.
Invited Princeton Quant Trading Presentations: 'Rethinking Finance' for Global Networked DeFi.
Cybersecurity & Cyber-Finance Risk Management: Strategies, Tactics, Operations, Intelligence.
Risk Management Framework: Penetration Testing: Banking-Finance Network VoIP Protocols.
CyberFinance: Cybersecurity Risk Analytics Must Evolve to Survive Emerging Cyber Financial Threats.
Beyond 'Bayesian vs. VaR' Dilemma: Managing Risk After Risk Management Failed for Hedge Funds.
Measuring & Managing Financial Risks with Improved Alternatives Beyond Value-at-Risk (VaR).
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models for High-Dimensionality Complex Network Security Problems.
Risk, Uncertainty, Profit: 'Knight Reconsidered': Model Risk Management in Cyber Risk Insurance.
Cyber-Finance Risk Management: Strategies, Tactics, Operations, Intelligence: ERM to MRM.
Number Field Sieve Cryptanalytic Algorithms for Efficient Prime Factorization on Composites.
Bitcoin & Statistical Probabilistic Quant Methods: Financial Regulation: Hong Kong CPAs.
Bitcoin Protocol & Block Chain: Model of 'Cryptographic Proof' Crypto-Currency Payment Systems.
2015-2022 88 SSRN Top-10 Rankings: AI-ML-Quant-Cyber-Crypto-Quantum-Risk Computing.
2008 AACSB International Impact of Research Report: Among Finance Nobel Laureates Black-Scholes
Top Wall Street Investment Banks Quantitative Finance Projects & FinTech Ventures
• US Air Force HQ AI-Machine Learning Commercial Exchange: Pioneering AGI To Save the World
• AFRL Commercialization Academy: Building the Future of AGI: Griffiss Cyberspace & Drone™.
• MIT Computer Science & AI Lab AI-Machine Learning Executive Guide: AI, ML, DL, NLP, RPA.
• Princeton: Future of Finance: 'Rethinking Finance' for Era of Global Networked Digital Finance.
• Journal of Financial Transformation:Capital Markets: AI Augmentation Cyber Risk Management.
• New York State Cyber Security Conference: AI-ML-GANs-DeepFakes: Cyber Risk of Deep Fakes.
• CFA Society Keynote: JP Morgan-Goldman Sachs Practices: Model Risk Management with AutoML.
• AFCEA C4I Cyber Conference: AI-ML-Cybersecurity Risk & Uncertainty Management Controls.
• MIT Sloan-Computer Sc. & AI Lab AI-ML Executive Guide including RPA & Cognitive Automation
• Princeton FinTech Quant Conference: Research Presentation: AI-ML-Deep Learning MRM.
• Journal of Operational Risk: 'Cyber-Finance’ Cyber Risk Management Frameworks of Practice.
• National Association of Insurance Commissioners: Expert Paper: Cyber Risk Insurance Modeling
• Princeton Quant Trading Presentation: Beyond Model Risk Management to Model Risk Arbitrage.
• Princeton Quant Trading Presentation: Future of Finance Beyond 'Flash Boys': Uncertainty.
• Quantitative Finance Risk Analytics Modeling Wall Street Investment Banks & VC Projects
• Model Risk Management: Risk Management Analytics from 'Prediction' to 'Anticipation of Risk'
• Quantitative Finance Risk Analytics, Econometric Analytics, Numerical Programming Models
• Quantitative Finance Model Risk Management for Systemic-Tail Risks in Cyber Risk Insurance
• JP Morgan Portfolio Optimization, VaR & Stress Testing: 17-Asset Class Portfolio
• JP Morgan Portfolio Liquidity Risk Modeling Framework for $500-600Bn Portfolio
• Bayesian VaR Beyond Value-At-Risk (VaR) Model Risks Exposed by Global Financial Crisis
• Goldman Sachs Alumnus Asset Manager Large-Scale Data High Freq Econometric Models
• Quantitative Finance, Risk Modeling, Econometric Modeling, Numerical Programming
• Technologies of Computational Quantitative Finance & Risk Analytics and Risk Management
• Algorithms & Computational Finance: C++, SAS, Java, Machine Learning, Signal Processing
• Cybersecurity, Financial Protocols & Networks Protocols Analysis, and, Penetration Testing
• Impact: Quantitative Finance, Quantitative Risk Analytics & Risk Management Projects
• Digital Social Enterprise Ventures Creating Trillion $ Practices for Hundreds of Millions
Named among FinTech Finance & IT Nobel laureates for Real World Impact of Research
• FinTech Innovations: Model Risk Arbitrage, Open Systems Finance, Cyber Finance, Cyber Insurance
• AACSB International Reports Impact of Research among Black-Scholes, Markowitz, Sharpe
• Research Impact Recognized among Finance & Information Technology Nobel laureates
• 88 SSRN Top-10 Rankings: AI-Machine Learning; Cybersecurity; Computer Science, Quant Trading
• FinTech Innovations: Model Risk Arbitrage, Cyber Finance, Cyber Risk Insurance Modeling
• Computational Quantitative Finance Modeling & Risk Management Research Publications
• Model Risk Management of Cyber Risk Insurance Models & Quantitative Finance Analytics
• Thesis on Ongoing Convergence of Financial Risk Management & Cyber Risk Management
• U.S. Federal Reserve & Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Model Risk Guidance
• Bayesian VaR Beyond Value-At-Risk (VaR) Model Risks Exposed by Global Financial Crisis
• Markov Chain Monte Carlo Models & Algorithms to Enable Bayesian Inference Modeling
• OCC Notes Cybersecurity Risk & Cyber Attacks as Key Contributor to Banks' Financial Risk
• Future of Bitcoin & Statistical Probabilistic Quantitative Methods: Global Financial Regulation
• Models Validation Expert Panels: IT, Operations Research, Economics, Computer Science
Global, National, & Enterprise CxO Level FinTech-Cyber-Risk Analytics Ventures
• CxO Think Tank that pioneered 'Digital' Management of Risk, Uncertainty, & Complexity
• CxO Consulting: Global, National & Corporate Risk Management Practices Leadership
• CxO Guidance: Cyber Defense & Finance-IT-Risk Management: Uncertainty & Risk
• CxO Keynotes: Conference Board, Silicon Valley, UN, World Economy: Uncertainty & Risk
• The Future of Finance Project Leading Quantitative Finance Practices at Elite Conferences
• The Griffiss Cyberspace Cybersecurity Venture Spans Wall Street and Hi-Tech Research
• UN Quantitative Economics Expert Paper & Keynote on Global Economists Expert Panel
• National Science Foundation Cybersecurity & Cybercomputing National Expert Panels
• Digital Social Enterprise Innovation Ventures Pioneering the Future of Risk and Quant
• Global Footprint of Worldwide World-Leading CxO Risk Management Ventures & Practices